Britons will be poorer with a Brexit deal – yes, with any form of Brexit deal.
A new UK government report published on November 28th confirms that Brexit will leave Britain in worse shape within next 10-15 years, compared to a scenario where Britain stayed within the European Union bloc.
The figures from this UK government report nearly match with two previous reports from UK think-tanks: one from National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and UK in the Changing Europe. The NIESR analysis is that Brexit deal will reduce GDP per person by 3%; the second report analysis has an estimate of 2% GDP reduction with Brexit deal in any form.
After Britain walks away from European Union – it’s largest trading partner – British trade with EU will drop close around 35-40%. This, in turn, will have very negative consequences for foreign investment in Britain which has so far remained quite high since the end of World War II. Getting out of EU will reduce migration of workers to the Britain that will harm the British economic productivity to remain competitive in this global economy. It will cause lower standard of living in Britain within 10-15 years.
The Bank of England issued their own economic report and warned that any Brexit deal will be much worse than 2008 recession and may lead to Depression over the horizon.
In all fairness, British government will be entirely naive to think that “post-Brexit” trade deals with America, China, Australia and various European countries will offset the negative economic impact of any Brexit deal. It won’t be a walk in the park as economic risks are too high if this is the British game plan.
An objective conclusion is that even Brexit hardliners should publicly admit that Brexit will leave Britons in worse shape than ever. Their objective to pull off a Brexit deal should only be on the grounds other than economic.